Crop Progress, Yield Outlooks and 30 Day Weather Forecast
Update for June 21st, 2019
The latest USDA weekly progress report was in line with average expectations and showed that 92% of the U.S. corn crop is planted vs 83% a week ago and the 5 year average of 100%. Hidden in the corn planting progress number are the acres actually planted vs those that are finished because the producer has decided to prevent plant those acres. An example of this situation is Michigan, where planting progress went from 63% to 84% this week. However the increase in planted acres was solely the result of farmers opting for prevented plant vs actual corn acres planted. Yield drag will also be a huge unknown as make our way to harvest. Research studies have shown that during the slowest planting years of 1983, 1993 and 1995, the overall yield drag was at least -10% below trend. There are many that believe that this year has been so bad in many of our key growing states that the yield loss could be closer to -20% below trend. If this correct we could possibly see average yields in the 140 to 160 range. A FarmDoc Daily article said it well…
“Based on the USDA’s weekly Crop Progress report, an estimated 51 percent of the corn acreage in the 18 major corn-producing states went in the ground after May 25, compared to the average of 16.8 percent from 1986 through 2018. The inescapable conclusion is that the lateness of corn planting in the U.S. this year is of truly historic dimensions and what has transpired in the eastern Corn Belt can be labelled in good faith a “black swan” event.”
States with some of the most significant planting delays:
Ohio 32% unplanted
South Dakota 22% unplanted
Indiana and Michigan are each 16% unplanted
Wisconsin 13% unplanted
Illinois 12% unplanted
Missouri 11% unplanted
The U.S. soybean crop is now 77% planted vs the 5 year average of 93%. Several of the same states (Ohio, Indiana, Illinois and Missouri) are facing large unplanted corn acres are also faced with over 10 million unplanted soybean acres. Even for the soybean crop we are moving well beyond the traditional planting dates and the yield drag could be considerably larger than we’ve experienced in the past. FarmDoc Daily published a study last week from field trials in Illinois which shows yield losses above -10% on soybean acres planted after May 20th with increasing reductions as you move into June. In addition they noted that after June 10th yield drag could increase to loss closer to -20%.
CROP PROGRESS
Corn Planted - Selected States
[These 18 States planted 92% of the 2018 corn acreage]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Week ending :
:--------------------------------------:
State : June 16, : June 9, : June 16, : 2014-2018
: 2018 : 2019 : 2019 : Average
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: percent
:
Colorado ...........: 100 88 93 99
Illinois ................: 100 73 88 100
Indiana ..............: 100 67 84 100
Iowa ..................: 100 93 98 100
Kansas .............: 99 89 96 99
Kentucky ...........: 99 94 97 99
Michigan ...........: 92 63 84 98
Minnesota .........: 100 92 99 99
Missouri ............: 100 81 89 99
Nebraska ..........: 100 94 98 100
North Carolina ..: 100 100 100 100
North Dakota ....: 100 93 98 99
Ohio ..................: 100 50 68 100
Pennsylvania ....: 92 89 94 94
South Dakota ....: 100 64 78 100
Tennessee ........: 100 99 100 100
Texas ................: 100 100 100 100
Wisconsin .........: 98 78 87 99
:
18 States ..........: 100 83 92 100
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Corn Emerged - Selected States
[These 18 States planted 92% of the 2018 corn acreage]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Week ending :
:--------------------------------------:
State : June 16, : June 9, : June 16, : 2014-2018
: 2018 : 2019 : 2019 : Average
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: percent
:
Colorado ...........: 96 69 86 96
Illinois ................: 99 51 74 99
Indiana ..............: 99 35 61 95
Iowa ..................: 99 73 88 99
Kansas .............: 99 73 83 96
Kentucky ...........: 95 85 91 95
Michigan ...........: 86 33 48 93
Minnesota .........: 99 69 87 98
Missouri ............: 100 67 80 98
Nebraska ..........: 100 80 90 99
North Carolina ..: 100 95 100 100
North Dakota ....: 95 63 86 95
Ohio ..................: 95 31 50 95
Pennsylvania ....: 81 74 86 88
South Dakota ....: 98 34 56 97
Tennessee ........: 99 93 99 98
Texas ................: 96 86 90 96
Wisconsin .........: 95 48 66 94
:
18 States ..........: 97 62 79 97
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Corn Condition - Selected States: Week Ending June 16, 2019
[These 18 States planted 94% of the 2018 corn acreage]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Week ending :
:--------------------------------------:
State : Very Poor : Poor : Fair : Good : Excellent
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: percent
:
Colorado ...........: - 4 18 68 10
Illinois ................: 4 11 34 45 6
Indiana ..............: 3 10 37 45 5
Iowa ..................: 2 7 32 51 8
Kansas .............: 3 11 39 42 5
Kentucky ...........: 2 3 14 69 12
Michigan ...........: 4 13 37 40 6
Minnesota .........: 2 6 34 51 7
Missouri ............: 5 23 44 26 2
Nebraska ..........: 1 3 19 68 9
North Carolina ..: 5 11 34 41 9
North Dakota ....: - 1 19 73 7
Ohio ..................: 3 9 35 46 7
Pennsylvania ....: - 3 22 62 13
South Dakota ....: 1 4 38 51 6
Tennessee ........: 1 3 23 55 18
Texas ................: 2 4 27 58 9
Wisconsin .........: 3 9 34 41 13
:
18 States ..........: 2 8 31 52 7
:
Previous week ..: 2 7 32 52 7
Previous year ....: 1 3 18 59 19
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
- Represents zero.
Soybeans Planted - Selected States
[These 18 States planted 95% of the 2018 soybean acreage]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Week ending :
:--------------------------------------:
State : June 16, : June 9, : June 16, : 2014-2018
: 2018 : 2019 : 2019 : Average
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: percent
:
Arkansas ...........: 98 66 79 90
Illinois ................: 99 49 70 95
Indiana ..............: 98 42 64 94
Iowa ..................: 99 70 89 98
Kansas .............: 93 48 74 82
Kentucky ...........: 85 61 74 78
Loisiana ............: 100 95 98 98
Michigan ...........: 85 45 53 94
Minnesota .........: 99 79 94 98
Mississippi ........: 98 85 91 95
Missouri ............: 93 37 57 81
Nebraska ..........: 100 79 91 98
North Carolina ..: 77 68 74 75
North Dakota ....: 100 88 96 99
Ohio ..................: 94 32 46 94
South Dakota ....: 99 43 70 98
Tennessee ........: 86 77 85 79
Wisconsin .........: 95 60 77 96
:
18 States ..........: 96 60 77 93
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Soybeans Emerged - Selected States
[These 18 States planted 95% of the 2018 soybean acreage]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Week ending :
:--------------------------------------:
State : June 16, : June 9, : June 16, : 2014-2018
: 2018 : 2019 : 2019 : Average
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: percent
:
Arkansas ...........: 93 52 65 84
Illinois ................: 93 25 50 88
Indiana ..............: 93 19 38 85
Iowa ..................: 96 35 63 92
Kansas .............: 83 24 45 65
Kentucky ...........: 69 44 56 61
Loisiana ............: 99 88 94 95
Michigan ...........: 75 23 34 84
Minnesota .........: 95 43 70 93
Mississippi ........: 94 72 80 91
Missouri ............: 86 20 36 69
Nebraska ..........: 96 55 73 92
North Carolina ..: 64 54 62 63
North Dakota ....: 86 43 74 87
Ohio ..................: 87 17 29 84
South Dakota ....: 89 11 36 89
Tennessee ........: 69 59 72 62
Wisconsin .........: 86 26 47 85
:
18 States ..........: 89 34 55 84
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This week President Trump reported that he and China’s President Xi Jinping had a positive phone conversation and that a meeting between the two leaders is scheduled while both are at the G-20 summit in Japan. The summit is scheduled for next week, June 28th and 29th which is the same time the USDA will release the June Acreage report. In other Chinese trade news: China is set to import close to --15% fewer soybeans over the next year as a result of the swine fever crisis. Due to the current trade war China maintains a 62% tariff on U.S. pork but the country imported 143 thousand metric tons of pork in only the first 3 months of 2019, nearly 5 times the amount imported during the entire year prior.
Another trade note: Mexico’s Senate passed the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement by a large 114 to 4 margin. Now it is up to the U.S. House to approve the trade agreement but it appears it though it is being met by some Democratic resistance.
Agricensus has reported that June corn exports from Brazil have been much slower than expected due to quality concerns caused by wet weather. Now producers are waiting for the new crop corn harvest in hopes that the two crops can be blended together to meet export specifications. At this time Brazil’s ports are loading or expected to load 3.6 MT of corn. Due to the early harvest in Brazil exporters had been expecting a far larger flood of grain on to the international market.
The Midwest and points southeast have favorable conditions today for the possibility of a severe weather outbreak as heavy rain bands push through the region.
The 5 day outlook for today through Wednesday call for a large portion of the country to receive at least an inch of rainfall with higher amounts of 2-4 inches possible across portions of Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Kansas and Oklahoma.
Temperatures will remain on the cool side for the next few days. The western Plains may see temps as much as 20 degrees below normal.
The Climate Prediction Center’s one month outlook which was released on June 20th shows the Corn Belt and Central Plains are in for the continuation of wet and cool conditions. The maps are shown below.
