USDA Report Worksheet & Declining Crop Conditions
Some of the strength in prices this week is being attributed to the drop in the USDA crop ratings for both corn and soybeans but the loss in the GD/EX corn rating was larger than expected. With the 3% decline in the GD/EX category the corn crop now sits at 58% GD/EX and is seasonally the worst GD/EX rating since 2019.
An important trend that could greatly affect production in the U.S. now and in the future.
Europe has been experiencing rolling heat waves and increasing drought conditions which are stressing this season’s crop. Romania is Europe’s largest producer and currently 75% of the country is covered by some level of drought. France is also one of the top producing countries in Europe and just recorded the driest July on record. Crop reports from some areas in eastern Germany warn that farmers in those regions may lose their entire crop.
The first map below shows the various levels of production found across all of Europe. The second map is a drought map, it does not give the detailed illustration we are accustomed to in our U.S. Drought Monitor map's, but it still gets the point across and paints a pretty dire picture.
For the past 5 years DTN has conducted a Digital Yield Tour using technology provided by Gro Intelligence that uses real-time yield maps that are generated using satellite imagery, rainfall data, temperature maps and various other data. The yield projections are based off from data collected across 10 major growing states throughout the week. As of Monday, August 8th the yield model forecast posted an estimate of 167.2 bushels per acre average for the U.S. corn crop and a 48.9 bushels per acre average soybean yield. DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman explains, “Crop development is in an earlier stage than usual this year, and next month’s numbers will likely be more important. Even so, I think Gro makes a good case to expect USDA to lower its corn and soybean yield estimates by the September report, when field data is included.”
Cooler-than-normal temps are in the forecast now and may shift yields higher in coming weeks. DTN Senior Analyst Will Osnato says that right now these early yield estimates are on the lower side of most other estimates but he believes they will trend higher. DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick said, “We’ve got a change in the upper air pattern for next week in particular. There’s an east-west disparity in it. The Eastern Corn Belt looks a lot cooler now than the western half, and we’ve got a cold front coming in later this week that’s really going to drive that. The Dakotas, Nebraska and Kansas all had above normal temperatures, and they still look like they’re still going to have above normal temperatures.”
Gro uses many different methods when forming their yield estimates including public and private crop and environmental data including NDVI, land surface temperature maps, rainfall, USDA crop condition surveys, weather forecasts, crop calendars, planted and harvested acreage data from NASS, cropland data, U.S. government soil surveys and much more. Osnato says that this year the data collected is not favorable. Land surface temps have reached near historical highs and the NCVI map is trending below normal which reflects the high temps, planting delays and various combinations of many factors.
Tomorrow the USDA will release their August WASDE and Crop Production reports. Pre-report estimates forecast a reduction in both corn and soybean yields. It is widely expected though that the bulk of these adjustments will likely not come in the August report but instead will wait until September when more data is available.
The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center has issued their Fall 2022 Temp and Trends Forecast for the period running September through November. The North American Multi-Model Season Outlook for the period is developed by using the average from 7 different seasonal forecasts. The maps below show that during the 3-month period the U.S. Corn Belt is likely to average above normal-temps and below-normal precipitation.
As mentioned earlier Gro Intelligence is forecasting a cooling trend due to a change in the upper air pattern going into next week. Data from the Climate Prediction Center also shows a similar trend for rain and temps in their 8-to-14- day outlook.
Early next week the upper air flow will begin to increase and move into the Great Lakes. As the week progresses the EURO model shows a large pool of cool air extending from Hudson Bay down to Chicago.
The following map from the CPC shows no risk for excessive heat anywhere east of the Rockies for the first time in 2 months