Update for May 30th, 2019
Update for May 30th, 2019
Last week the market focus was clearly on the wet conditions across much of the Corn Belt. The pattern has not changed yet and the constant flow of moisture continues to move across many of the same areas time and time again and there seems to be no end in sight for the next 10 to 14 days. This situation has driven corn higher and has assisted prices to rebound over $0.60 per bushel in only 2 weeks and has been accelerated even further by Fund buying. The extreme weather is raising a lot of questions for traders as well as producers to consider as we move into June:
How many acres of corn will get planted nationally in 2019? There are some marketers that are expecting acres to fall to 88 million. There are even some that feel planted corn acres could fall even further to sub 83 million.
What is going to happen with Preventive Plant subsidies? There has been a lot of different stories circulating about the possible increase for these subsidies and if that happens that may also greatly influence the final acres count, if the details are announced soon. It is more likely though that announcements regarding these details will be saved until planting season is completely over in an effort to not influence producer planting decisions.
How many acres of planted corn have been destroyed from heavy rainfall and ponding and will producers replant those areas?
How much yield drag will there be, trend-line yields are improbable at this point? Some analysts are starting to work with yield numbers between -6 bushels and -16 bushels below trend which would move the current estimate from the USDA of 176.0 bushel per acre down to 160 and 170 bushels per acre instead.
Certain portions of the U.S. Corn Belt are now experiencing the wettest month of May in over 125 years. This week the USDA shows that only 58% of the corn crop has been planted. That calculates to nearly 39 million corn acres that are still unplanted. A few of the notables:
Indiana is 22% planted vs 94% last year.
South Dakota is 25% planted vs 87% a year ago.
Illinois is 35% planted vs 99% last season.
Iowa is 76% planted vs 95% last year.
North Dakota 63% planted vs 85% in 2018.
Soybeans are also trailing well behind their typical planting pace. This week’s USDA figures indicate that U.S. producers have less than 25 million acres planted which means that there are still nearly 60 million soybean acres waiting to be planted. Concerns are mounting as several of the biggest producing states are the furthest behind:
Illinois is 14% planted vs 89% last year.
Indiana has planted 11% vs 85% in 2018.
Iowa just 32% planted vs 78% a year ago.
Minnesota is 35% planted vs 75% last year.
South Dakota has 6% planted vs 56% last year.
Ohio only 11% vs 65% in 2018
Corn Planted - Selected States
[These 18 States planted 92% of the 2018 corn acreage]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Week ending :
:--------------------------------------:
State : May 26, : May 19, : May 26, : 2014-2018
: 2018 : 2019 : 2019 : Average
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: percent
:
Colorado ............: 82 63 71 83
Illinois .................: 99 24 35 95
Indiana ...............: 94 14 22 85
Iowa ...................: 95 70 76 96
Kansas ...............: 91 61 70 88
Kentucky ............: 89 71 82 89
Michigan ............: 62 19 33 73
Minnesota ..........: 91 56 66 93
Missouri .............: 99 62 65 95
Nebraska ...........: 95 70 81 94
North Carolina ...: 98 93 95 97
North Dakota .....: 83 42 63 85
Ohio ...................: 80 9 22 78
Pennsylvania .....: 56 42 66 70
South Dakota .....: 87 19 25 90
Tennessee .........: 97 85 93 97
Texas .................: 90 92 93 89
Wisconsin ..........: 77 35 46 82
:
18 States ...........: 90 49 58 90
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Corn Emerged - Selected States
[These 18 States planted 92% of the 2018 corn acreage]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Week ending :
:--------------------------------------:
State : May 26, : May 19, : May 26, : 2014-2018
: 2018 : 2019 : 2019 : Average
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: percent
:
Colorado ...........: 54 12 25 54
Illinois ................: 88 11 20 84
Indiana ..............: 78 4 10 65
Iowa ..................: 74 20 42 77
Kansas .............: 77 37 49 69
Kentucky ...........: 66 50 65 70
Michigan ...........: 37 1 7 41
Minnesota .........: 60 6 21 70
Missouri ............: 90 44 51 88
Nebraska ..........: 77 27 50 73
North Carolina ..: 93 80 89 92
North Dakota ....: 30 1 8 43
Ohio ..................: 63 3 8 54
Pennsylvania ....: 29 18 42 46
South Dakota ....: 45 - 2 57
Tennessee ........: 88 72 81 88
Texas ................: 83 75 81 81
Wisconsin .........: 44 3 11 49
:
18 States ..........: 69 19 32 69
-----------------------------------------------------------------
- Represents zero.
Soybeans Planted - Selected States
[These 18 States planted 95% of the 2018 soybean acreage]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Week ending :
:--------------------------------------:
State : May 26, : May 19, : May 26, : 2014-2018
: 2018 : 2019 : 2019 : Average
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: percent
:
Arkansas ...........: 86 31 42 73
Illinois ................: 89 9 14 70
Indiana ..............: 85 6 11 63
Iowa ..................: 78 27 32 77
Kansas ..............: 63 17 22 41
Kentucky ...........: 53 22 38 40
Louisiana ..........: 96 67 82 90
Michigan ...........: 43 10 23 52
Minnesota .........: 75 22 35 77
Mississippi ........: 88 45 65 86
Missouri ............: 75 9 12 53
Nebraska ..........: 84 40 56 74
North Carolina ..: 48 36 52 45
North Dakota ....: 66 24 46 65
Ohio ..................: 65 4 11 55
South Dakota ....: 56 4 6 64
Tennessee ........: 61 31 49 50
Wisconsin .........: 59 12 20 59
:
18 States ...........: 74 19 29 66
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Soybeans Emerged - Selected States
[These 18 States planted 95% of the 2018 soybean acreage]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Week ending :
:--------------------------------------:
State : May 26, : May 19, : May 26, : 2014-2018
: 2018 : 2019 : 2019 : Average
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: percent
:
Arkansas ...........: 75 20 30 62
Illinois ................: 72 2 8 44
Indiana ..............: 59 1 3 35
Iowa ..................: 40 3 8 36
Kansas ..............: 39 6 12 22
Kentucky ...........: 30 8 17 21
Louisiana ..........: 91 46 64 83
Michigan ...........: 24 1 5 24
Minnesota .........: 25 - 3 35
Mississippi ........: 77 32 44 75
Missouri ............: 49 3 7 32
Nebraska ..........: 49 7 23 36
North Carolina ..: 33 18 34 27
North Dakota ....: 17 - 4 21
Ohio ..................: 43 - 4 29
South Dakota ....: 14 - - 24
Tennessee ........: 37 14 28 28
Wisconsin .........: 22 - 1 23
:
18 States ...........: 44 5 11 35
-----------------------------------------------------------------
- Represents zero.
The Trump Administration’s plan to provide an additional $16 billion in trade assistance to U.S. producers hurt by the China trade war has been approved.
The USDA announced last week that $14.5 billion of the $16 billion total will be paid directly to farmers based on single payment rates by county (which have not been determined yet) and will not be based on any commodity, only by a farm’s total planted acreage in 2019 (which excludes Preventive Plant acres). The first of the three direct payments to farmers will be made in July/August, then again in late fall with the final payment expected in early 2020.
A disaster aid bill which had President Trump’s support and has passed through the Senate failed to pass the House both last week and again this week. There will be another attempt to pass the bill this week and if it fails it will have to wait until after June 4th for a roll call vote. The bill includes $13 billion to farmers to cover crop losses; $1.6 billion to repair damaged highways; $720 million for the U.S. Forest Service for wildfire suppression; $120 million to the National Park Service to repair public lands; $3.25 billion for the Army Corp of Engineers to repair damaged infrastructure and $414 million to the EPA for repairs to damaged drinking water infrastructure as well as other needs.
The Memorial Day holiday weekend was wet and stormy across the Corn Belt with many areas receiving more than 3 inches of rainfall. Additionally, a system moving through the Heartland is expected to bring widespread rainfall of at least an inch through the end of this week with parts of southern Iowa and northern Illinois forecast to receive as much as 3 to 4 inches of precipitation.
May leaves many areas of the U.S. with historical rainfall totals the map below shows little relief as we transition into June. The forecasted precipitation amounts for May 29th through June 5th are indicated in the map below.
