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Update for November 10th, 2022

USDA Worksheet and U.S Yield Maps & Winter Temps Arrive

The USDA WASDE report this week increased U.S. ending corn stocks by 10 million bushels and raised production by 35 million bushels by boosting yields from 171.9 to 172.3 bushels per acre. Soybean ending stocks were also raised higher by 20 million bushels, production was increased 33 million bushels from a yield boost from 49.8 to 50.2 bushels per acre. The maps below show the changes in yield by state from the previous month.

A senior Russian delegation and top U.N. officials are scheduled to meet Friday in Geneva to discuss an extension of the Black Sea grain deal and efforts to simplify the process of moving shipments of Russian food and fertilizers to global markets. Ukraine leaders are asking that the new agreement include more eligible ports and more goods including the port of Mykolaiv which accounted for 1/3rd of all Ukrainian grain exports prior to the invasion. The current agreement that was signed back in July is scheduled to expire on November 19th and still will if either Ukraine or Russia object to the new terms. A spokesman from the U.N. said “It is hoped that the discussions will advance progress made in facilitating the unimpeded export of food and fertilizers originating from the Russian Federation to the global markets.” Russia has implied that it would allow for the free movement of grain from Ukraine even if the negotiations fail and they leave the deal.

The threat of a railroad workers strike remains but the deadline has been extended allowing for a longer cooling-off period. The 3rd largest railroad union, The Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way Employees Division (BMWED) of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, announced that negotiations will be extended till December 4th, 2-weeks beyond the original deadline of November 19th. This updated deadline coincides with the deadline of another large railroad union, The Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen (BLET) and the Smart-Transportation Division. The extended deadline will give the unions the opportunity to finish their ratification procedures for any tentative national agreements without disruption. If these Unions do not ratify, then we will have the opportunity to bring all of Rail Labor together, under a single deadline, to finish national negotiations.” If no agreement is reached, the new cooling-off period would last through December 8th. This would make December 9th the first possible day a strike could begin. In the meantime, two major rail unions The Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen and the Smart Transportation Division are set to vote on ratifying the deal November 21st.

Headlines out of China regarding COVID lockdowns go back and forth. Recently lockdowns have been increasing as a new omicron variant has emerged. On Tuesday the nation reported 7,700 new COVID cases, the highest total since April. Large sections of a major manufacturing city, Guangzhou, have been locked down. Officials say that this is the worst outbreak since the pandemic began in 2020.

Water levels along the Mississippi River have improved in recent weeks from the record-lows that slowed transportation along the river for several weeks. Levels in Memphis are 2.3 feet higher than the low reached in October. Regular precipitation over the coming months will be necessary for river transportation to return to normal next year.

A powerful cold front managed a change of seasons today as it moved across the state. Temps dropped quickly, falling from the low 60’s into the 40’s within a few hours.

We haven’t had to think about wind chills in months but that is changing. Temps are forecast to fall into the upper teens and low 20’s and when the “feel like” temp is determined it’s likely it will feel 45-50 degrees than it did 24 hours earlier.

Weekend temps aren’t going anywhere and next week we could see some light snow showers develop Monday night and Tuesday. An energetic pattern has developed which is expected to drop the first measurable snowfall of the season, the two maps below show the expected snowfall totals from the EURO (1st) and the GFS (shown 2nd).

The cold air is expected to remain in place for 8 to 10 days before any moderation arrives. The map below shows the 10-day average of temperature departures from normal for November 11th through the 21st.

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