Search
  • Ag Performance

USDA Report, A Look Back At 2018 and Weather Outlook

Update for February 13th, 2019

The USDA reports released last week delivered very little in the way of surprises.


CORN

  • Yield was lowered more than expected from 178.9 down to 176.4 bushels per acre. (Even with this yield reduction this is still the 2nd best corn crop ever harvested)

  • Total production was reduced by 206 million bushels.

  • Harvested acres were lowered from 81.8 to 81.7 million acres.

  • Imports were reduced by 5 million bushels and exports remained unchanged.

  • Demand was lowered by 165 million bushels.

  • Corn used for ethanol was lowered by 25 million bushels.

  • Feed and Residual fell by 125 million bushels.

  • U.S. ending stocks were reduced by 46 million bushels to 1.735 billion bushels.

  • Argentine corn crop estimate was raised from 42.5 to 46 MMT’s, the estimate for Brazil was unchanged.

  • The U.S. average farm price for corn was lowered to an estimated $3.35 to $3.85 per bushels.

The map produced by USDA NASS shows by state the yield change for corn in 2018 compared to yields in 2017.





SOYBEANS

  • 2018 yield was reduced from 52.1 to 51.6 bushels per acre.

  • Harvested acres were lowered slightly from 88.3 to 88.1 million acres.

  • Total production went from a previous estimate of 4.6 billion bushels down to 4.544 billion bushels.

  • Imports were reduced by 5 million bushels while exports fell by 25 million bushels.

  • Domestic crush was increased by 10 million bushels.

  • Residual was lowered by 1 million bushels.

  • Overall U.S. ending stocks were lowered by 45 million bushels but are still at a very high burdensome 910 million bushels.

  • The on-farm soybean price is estimated from $8.10 to $9.10 per bushel.

  • The map produced by USDA NASS shows by state the yield change for soybeans in 2018 compared to yields in 2017.




2018 U.S. Production

Trade USDA

Jan. # Avg. Guess Range Nov

Corn Yield: 176.4 178.0 176.7 - 179.9 178.9

Corn Production: 14.420 14.538 14.343 - 14.800 14.626

Corn Harvested Acres: 81.7 81.668 80.850 - 82.100 81.767

Soybean Yield: 51.6 51.8 51.5 - 52.4 52.1

Soybean Production: 4.544 4.572 4.505 - 4.620 4.600

Soybean Harvested Acres: 88.1 88.189 87.364 - 88.509 88.343


Dec. 1 U.S. Grain Stocks

Trade USDA USDA

Jan. # Avg. Guess Range Sep. 1, 2018 Dec. 1, 2017

Corn 11.952 12.097 11.975 -12.400 2.140 12.567

Soybeans 3.736 3.752 3.414 - 3.872 0.438 3.161

Wheat 1.999 1.960 1.900 - 1.985 2.379 1.873


U.S. Winter Wheat Seedings

Trade USDA

Jan. # Avg. Guess Range 2018

Total Winter: 31.290 32.279 31.513 - 33.300 32.535

Hard Red Winter: 22.2 22.727 22.125 - 23.620 22.923

Soft Red Winter: 5.66 6.019 5.643 - 6.210 6.076

White Winter: 3.44 3.486 3.211 - 3.700 3.536



U.S. Ending Stocks

Trade USDA

Jan. # Avg. Guess Range Dec

Corn: 1.735 1.694 1.579 - 1.787 1.781

Soybeans: 0.910 0.904 0.798 - 0.980 0.955

Wheat: 1.010 0.987 0.950 -1.028 0.974



World Ending Stocks

Trade USDA

Jan. # Avg. Guess Range Dec

Corn: 309.78 307.32 305.50 - 310.00 308.80

Soybeans: 106.72 114.36 111.80 - 117.00 115.33

Wheat: 267.53 268.22 264.00 - 269.70 268.10



South American Production

Trade USDA

Jan. # Avg. Guess Range Dec

Brazil Corn: 94.5 94.31 93.50 - 95.50 94.50

Brazil Soybeans: 117.0 120.13 116.00 - 122.50 122.00

Argentina Corn: 46.0 42.39 41.50 - 43.50 42.50

Argentina Soybeans: 55.0 55.29 54.00 - 56.00 55.50



During the 2018 calendar year the United States experienced 14 weather and climate disasters. Each of these events caused losses of at least $1 billion dollars and a grand total of $91 billion making 2018 the 4th highest in the number of events and total cumulative costs since records began in 1980. Coming in as the most expensive disaster of 2018 was Hurricane Michael which topped the list with $25 billion in damages. Following this in total damage amounts were the Western U.S. wildfires and Hurricane Florence which each totaled $24 billion in damages. There were also 247 people killed and many more injured as a direct result of one of these 14 disasters.




2018 also ranked as the 3rd wettest year in the past 124 years for the U.S. overall! Precipitation for the contiguous U.S. average 35.63 inches which is nearly 5 inches above average. The map below shows the states that saw above normal rainfall in 3 varying shades of green. The states shown in the darkest green recorded their wettest year in history. Iowa, Kentucky and Wisconsin all recorded their second wettest year in history while Ohio their third, Indiana their 4th and Nebraska their fifth wettest on record.





Temps across the U.S. averaged above normal in 2018. Both the West and southern East Coast saw higher temperature extremes. As you move further inland temps started to moderate, in fact most of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest regions saw near normal temperatures.


As we look at 2019 and the upcoming week, U.S. temps are expected to be the 3rd coldest out of the last 30 years and the coldest and 2nd wettest out of the past 4 winter seasons. According to WeatherTrends 360 we are in a weather pattern similar to that of the years 1994 and 2003. Both of those winter seasons saw “epic cold and snow for the latter half of February into the middle of March, so Winter will go out with a bang this year”.




29 views

Recent Posts

See All

CFAP 2 and The Stop Gap Funding Measure

Update for September 23rd, 2020 Last Thursday evening during a campaign rally in Wisconsin President Trump announced that his administration will be providing an additional $13 billion in aid to produ

Update for September 10th, 2020

Update for September 10th, 2020 Private crop estimates are all in ahead of the USDA September Crop Production and WASDE reports which will be released tomorrow, September 11th at 11:00 CST. Trade anal

710 N. Main Street

Buffalo Center, IA 50424

866-562-2370

  • Twitter
  • Facebook Clean

© 2023 by My Agrolinx. Proudly created with Wix.com