USDA Report, A Look Back At 2018 and Weather Outlook
Update for February 13th, 2019
The USDA reports released last week delivered very little in the way of surprises.
CORN
Yield was lowered more than expected from 178.9 down to 176.4 bushels per acre. (Even with this yield reduction this is still the 2nd best corn crop ever harvested)
Total production was reduced by 206 million bushels.
Harvested acres were lowered from 81.8 to 81.7 million acres.
Imports were reduced by 5 million bushels and exports remained unchanged.
Demand was lowered by 165 million bushels.
Corn used for ethanol was lowered by 25 million bushels.
Feed and Residual fell by 125 million bushels.
U.S. ending stocks were reduced by 46 million bushels to 1.735 billion bushels.
Argentine corn crop estimate was raised from 42.5 to 46 MMT’s, the estimate for Brazil was unchanged.
The U.S. average farm price for corn was lowered to an estimated $3.35 to $3.85 per bushels.
The map produced by USDA NASS shows by state the yield change for corn in 2018 compared to yields in 2017.
SOYBEANS
2018 yield was reduced from 52.1 to 51.6 bushels per acre.
Harvested acres were lowered slightly from 88.3 to 88.1 million acres.
Total production went from a previous estimate of 4.6 billion bushels down to 4.544 billion bushels.
Imports were reduced by 5 million bushels while exports fell by 25 million bushels.
Domestic crush was increased by 10 million bushels.
Residual was lowered by 1 million bushels.
Overall U.S. ending stocks were lowered by 45 million bushels but are still at a very high burdensome 910 million bushels.
The on-farm soybean price is estimated from $8.10 to $9.10 per bushel.
The map produced by USDA NASS shows by state the yield change for soybeans in 2018 compared to yields in 2017.
2018 U.S. Production
Trade USDA
Jan. # Avg. Guess Range Nov
Corn Yield: 176.4 178.0 176.7 - 179.9 178.9
Corn Production: 14.420 14.538 14.343 - 14.800 14.626
Corn Harvested Acres: 81.7 81.668 80.850 - 82.100 81.767
Soybean Yield: 51.6 51.8 51.5 - 52.4 52.1
Soybean Production: 4.544 4.572 4.505 - 4.620 4.600
Soybean Harvested Acres: 88.1 88.189 87.364 - 88.509 88.343
Dec. 1 U.S. Grain Stocks
Trade USDA USDA
Jan. # Avg. Guess Range Sep. 1, 2018 Dec. 1, 2017
Corn 11.952 12.097 11.975 -12.400 2.140 12.567
Soybeans 3.736 3.752 3.414 - 3.872 0.438 3.161
Wheat 1.999 1.960 1.900 - 1.985 2.379 1.873
U.S. Winter Wheat Seedings
Trade USDA
Jan. # Avg. Guess Range 2018
Total Winter: 31.290 32.279 31.513 - 33.300 32.535
Hard Red Winter: 22.2 22.727 22.125 - 23.620 22.923
Soft Red Winter: 5.66 6.019 5.643 - 6.210 6.076
White Winter: 3.44 3.486 3.211 - 3.700 3.536
U.S. Ending Stocks
Trade USDA
Jan. # Avg. Guess Range Dec
Corn: 1.735 1.694 1.579 - 1.787 1.781
Soybeans: 0.910 0.904 0.798 - 0.980 0.955
Wheat: 1.010 0.987 0.950 -1.028 0.974
World Ending Stocks
Trade USDA
Jan. # Avg. Guess Range Dec
Corn: 309.78 307.32 305.50 - 310.00 308.80
Soybeans: 106.72 114.36 111.80 - 117.00 115.33
Wheat: 267.53 268.22 264.00 - 269.70 268.10
South American Production
Trade USDA
Jan. # Avg. Guess Range Dec
Brazil Corn: 94.5 94.31 93.50 - 95.50 94.50
Brazil Soybeans: 117.0 120.13 116.00 - 122.50 122.00
Argentina Corn: 46.0 42.39 41.50 - 43.50 42.50
Argentina Soybeans: 55.0 55.29 54.00 - 56.00 55.50
During the 2018 calendar year the United States experienced 14 weather and climate disasters. Each of these events caused losses of at least $1 billion dollars and a grand total of $91 billion making 2018 the 4th highest in the number of events and total cumulative costs since records began in 1980. Coming in as the most expensive disaster of 2018 was Hurricane Michael which topped the list with $25 billion in damages. Following this in total damage amounts were the Western U.S. wildfires and Hurricane Florence which each totaled $24 billion in damages. There were also 247 people killed and many more injured as a direct result of one of these 14 disasters.
2018 also ranked as the 3rd wettest year in the past 124 years for the U.S. overall! Precipitation for the contiguous U.S. average 35.63 inches which is nearly 5 inches above average. The map below shows the states that saw above normal rainfall in 3 varying shades of green. The states shown in the darkest green recorded their wettest year in history. Iowa, Kentucky and Wisconsin all recorded their second wettest year in history while Ohio their third, Indiana their 4th and Nebraska their fifth wettest on record.
Temps across the U.S. averaged above normal in 2018. Both the West and southern East Coast saw higher temperature extremes. As you move further inland temps started to moderate, in fact most of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest regions saw near normal temperatures.
As we look at 2019 and the upcoming week, U.S. temps are expected to be the 3rd coldest out of the last 30 years and the coldest and 2nd wettest out of the past 4 winter seasons. According to WeatherTrends 360 we are in a weather pattern similar to that of the years 1994 and 2003. Both of those winter seasons saw “epic cold and snow for the latter half of February into the middle of March, so Winter will go out with a bang this year”.
