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USDA Report Worksheet and China

Update for November 6th, 2018

Remember today is Election Day 2018!!

Thursday we will get the latest USDA Supply and Demand and Crop Production estimates for November. The trade is looking for the U.S. corn and soybean crop numbers to be marginally smaller. The carryout estimates are expected to fall for corn but increase for both soybeans and wheat.

U.S. Harvested Acres 2018 (in million acres)

Average Trade USDA

Nov. # Trade Est. Range Sep 2018

Corn ??? 81.749 81.500-81.800 81.767

Soybeans ??? 88.303 87.900-88.350 88.348

U.S. Yields 2018 (in Bushels per Acre)

Average Trade USDA

Nov. # Trade Est. Range Sep 2018

Corn ??? 180.0 178.2-181.0 180.7

Soybeans ??? 52.9 52.5-53.5 53.1

U.S. Production 2018 (in billion bushels)

Average Trade USDA

Nov. # Trade Est. Range Sep 2018

Corn ??? 14.721 14.576-14.806 14.778

Soybeans ??? 4.676 4.637-4.698 4.690

U.S. Ending Stocks 2018/19 (in billion bushels)

Average Trade USDA

Nov. # Trade Est. Range Sep 2018

Corn ??? 1.773 1.688-1.841 1.813

Soybeans ??? 0.898 0.833-1.010 0.885

Wheat ??? 0.958 0.925-0.981 0.956

World Ending Stocks 2018/19 (in million metric tons)

Average Trade USDA

Nov. # Trade Est. Range Sep 2018

Corn ??? 158.82 157.00-160.20 159.35

Soybeans ??? 110.91 109.50-113.50 110.04

Wheat ??? 259.45 257.5- 261.20 260

Informa and INTL FCStone have released their latest figures just ahead of the USDA report. Informa has adjusted their estimated corn yield lower, from 182.1 bushels per acre a month ago down to 179.7 for November. The soybean yield was also adjusted a bit lower this month falling from 53.0 bushels per acre in October to 52.6 for November. Informa estimates total corn production for 2018 at 14.698 billion bushels, down 80 million from the USDA. Their estimated 2018 soybean production sits at 4.647 billion bushels, down 43 million from the USDA. INTL FCStone also lowered their U.S. corn yields from 182.7 bushels per acre in October to 181.4 in November. The soybean yield was also lowered from 54 bushels per acre to 53.2 for November. Total corn production was estimated at 14.830 billion bushels which is 52 million higher than the October USDA figure. Soybean production was projected to increase from 119.3 million tons to 120.2 million tons which now higher than last year’s record setting production of 119.3 million tons.

The USDA has announced their baseline projections for the 2019 crop season. Corn acres are expected to reach 92 million which is a 2.9 million increase from 2018. Soybean acres are expected to fall off by 6.6 million acres to 82.5 million. Of course all of this is very preliminary and is based on many current factors that may change between now and planting. March 31st the USDA will announce the planting intentions figures gathered from producer surveys.

Weekly corn inspections rebounded sharply last week up to 49.4 million bushels up from 13.8 million the previous week and up 18 million compared to this same week a year ago. The 9 week old 2018-19 marketing year is off to an impressive start with corn inspections of 389.7 million bushels which is 171 million ahead of the pace a year ago. The USDA is expecting a 37 million bushel year-over-year increase in corn exports from last year.

Everyone is watching the headlines regarding U.S. and China trade relations. Reuters reported early last week that a cargo of U.S. soybeans were diverted from China to South Korea. Shipping data shows that the Star Laura, carrying 36,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans were loaded in a Seattle port in late September. This vessel was expected to reach the eastern Chinese port of Qingdao last Wednesday. Hope was renewed then later last week when President Trump tweeted, “Just had a long and very good conversation with President Xi Jinping of China, We talked about many subjects, with a heavy emphasis on Trade. Those negotiations are moving along nicely with meetings being scheduled at the G-20 in Argentina. Also had good discussion on North Korea!” This message from the President gave the U.S. markets a significant boost as did additional reports over the weekend that China is considering the purchase of U.S. crude oil instead of crude oil out of Iran in an effort to support Iranian sanctions. President Xi is expected to speak to the public this week and some believe that he may offer additional thoughts, opinions and insight to the trade issue which may also help maintain the positive market momentum.

Another major blast of cold weather has made its way back into the U.S delivering the coldest conditions for early November that the U.S. has seen in 15 years and is also the wettest we’ve seen in 3 years. The first WeatherTrends 360 map shown below illustrates the outlook for the current week, November 5-11th.

The following week, November 12-18th is also expected to remain cold with heavy rain shifting into the Southeast and the Pacific Northwest.

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