Update for September 10th, 2021
Earlier this week the updated FSA acreage numbers were accidently posted on the their website but were taken down shortly thereafter. The data was then reposted to ensure equal access to the information for all. As previously expected nearly 50% of the additional 900,000 corn acres are located in the Dakota’s and Minnesota which have had less than an ideal growing season and will likely be a drag on the overall yield average.
CONAB (Brazil’s version of our USDA) has made additional cuts to their 2020-21 corn production numbers reducing their August projection from 86.65 MMT to 85.749 MMT. Widespread drought in many of the main production areas along with the early June frost wiped out the expected gain from the 8.6% increase in corn planted acres and reduced yield by -27% compared to a year ago. Full season corn planting in Brazil has begun and is currently reported at 10% complete, slightly behind the normal pace.
Soybean acreage also saw a jump in planted acres from 85.3 million in August vs 86.2 million now in September. Again, most of these additional acres are located in the Dakota’s and Minnesota which are not going to help the overall yield average but it is an additional 900,000 acres to add to the total production. The Chinese continue to buy U.S. soybean each day although not the large quantities that make headlines. Yesterday a flash sale of 3.9 million bushels of soybeans were reported. Lately their buying has become more aggressive but for the current marketing year we are 41% behind last year. In total U.S. soybean exports are 27% behind a year ago.
Farmers in Brazil will soon begin the soybean planting season in some areas. The soybean planting season is long, running from mid-September into mid-February depending on location and weather. CONAB reduced their forecast soybean production by -63,000 MMT but soybean exports were increased by +190,000 MMT to 83.61 million in 2021.
The outlook is improving and better than expected at export terminals in New Orleans following damage from Hurricane Ida. Several of the terminals are back to normal operations now that power has been restored and barge and ship traffic is once again moving on the Mississippi River.
The USDA will release the monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports at 11:00 a.m. Most traders are expecting a more bearish report compared to last month. The USDA is expected to raise crop yields on top of the added acres that we already know about. In addition, exports have been down, ethanol output has slowed and soybean crush numbers are also lower.
Temps are forecast to be above to much above normal over the weekend with warmer temps predicted to remain through next week.