WASDE and Crop Production Report Worksheet and Outlooks
Update for October 8, 2021
Next Tuesday the October WASDE and Crop Production reports will be announced. Weekly corn export inspections have improved and reports of weaker than expected yields in portions of the eastern Corn Belt have market bull’s hopeful we could get a friendly report. Currently though, many analysts feel that we really need to see a reduction to the yield forecast or more aggressive demand headlines to push prices out of the lower-end of the range, without one of those catalysts corn prices are likely to bounce between $5.10 and $5.20 per bushel. If prices are able to push higher technical resistance to the upside is currently around $5.60 per bushel. The lack of interest in the commodity markets and price support given the spike in energy market prices and rising inflation is also concerning.
U.S. corn exports to China during the 2020/21 marketing year exceeded many expectations including forecasts from the USDA. Currently the USDA is estimating U.S. corn exports to China at 26 MMT but the Chinese attaché office has adjusted their corn import estimates for the 2021/22 and has reduced the outlook down to 20 MMT. “As the feed sector sources cheaper feed grain alternatives and growth in feed demand increases at a slower rate, demand for imported corn is expected to moderate.”
Soybean export sales are drastically behind USDA projections and we haven’t had any flash sales to China in 2 weeks. There is a lot of uncertainty whether the USDA will reduce their soybean export projection in next weeks report or if they will decide to wait for another month or two to see if there is an uptick in export sales by then. With harvest moving along quickly across the country much of the “risk premium” is now off the table limiting soybeans upside potential and some investors in the soybean market are using the occasional rallies we do get to exit the market. Corn input prices have gone crazy, if you can even find them, which is likely going to persuade many producers to plant more 2022 acres to soybeans than they would otherwise. Add to that the talk of ending soybean stocks possibly reaching above 300 million bushels and reports of more soybean acres being put into production in Brazil. There is also speculation that China may be waiting to make additional purchases of U.S. soybean supplies until prices fall below $12.00 a bushel.
The latest adjustments made by the USDA to U.S. and global balance sheets will be released next Tuesday in the Crop Production and WASDE reports. In general, many traders are looking to find a slightly lower corn yield vs a month ago and a slightly higher soybean yield. Reuters conducted a poll of analysts asking them for their estimates for both corn and soybean yields in the October reports. The survey average for the U.S. corn yield fell slightly from 176.3 bushels per acre down to 176 bushels per acre this month while the soybean yield was raised from 50.6 bushels per acre a month ago to 51.1. IHS (formally known as Vantage/Informa) predicts a corn yield of 176.8 and a soybean yield of 51.1 bushels per acre. Stone X is estimating the corn yield at 176.6 bushels per acre a decrease from the groups earlier estimates of 177.5. Stone X soybean estimate increased to 51.3 bushels per acre a slight increase from their estimate of 50.8 a month ago.
Weather models for temps and precipitation over the next week are included in the various maps below.
Many key growing regions across Brazil are receiving some much-needed precipitation. The GFS weather model for Brazil through October 16th is shown in the map below.